Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc46e…9ed8 sports 610 markets active 0h ago coverage 51d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,977 (-9%) realized −$3,155 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%230W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$443est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days+$75
14 days+$720
30 days−$1,166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$2,244
other 16% −$94
crypto 4% −$801
world 2% +$217
finance 1% −$318
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +6.5% -3.6% 45% 45% -7.1%
≤30d 352 -10.0% -18.6% 39% 37% -14.9%
≤90d 590 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 38% -18.9%
all 590 -10.7% -19.2% 39% 38% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 38% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 36% -26.6%
15% -34.0% 36% -33.7%
20% -40.4% 35% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$48 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$1,289
Realized−$3,155
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses230 / 360
Est. fees paid−$443
Open positions21
Markets (closed)590 / 610
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 59¢ $400 $563 +$163 (+41%)
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Noskova 51¢ 72¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Messi's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 54¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Japan win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 27¢ $16 $64 +$48 (+291%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 50¢ 58¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 43¢ 48¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Moutet vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 Under 52¢ 53¢ $43 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Karolina Pliskova 46¢ 46¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Kia Tigers 40¢ 32¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Mattia Bellucci 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $25 $17 −$7 (-30%)
Will Germany win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-42%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-62%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-63%)
Will France win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-69%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals Jun 18 $129 −$129 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $102 +$23 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$182 +704%
Set Handicap: Jacquet (-1.5) vs Rottgering (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$9 -18%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $51 +$55 +107%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 17 $51 +$45 +88%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $201 +$198 +98%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$51 +102%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$34 +66%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $77 +$97 +126%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Axel Nefve vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Set Handicap: Safiullin (-1.5) vs Holmgren (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Nottingham 2: Roman Safiullin vs August Holmgren Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $26 +$29 +112%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $51 +$37 +72%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $51 +$38 +74%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $26 +$37 +143%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Nottingham Open: Caty McNally vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $52 +$116 +225%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $102 +$90 +88%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$50 +99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $26 +$16 +63%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $52 +$121 +234%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $51 +$38 +74%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $102 +$86 +84%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Celine Naef Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Olimpia Milano (-8.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $52 +$61 +118%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $26 +$31 +121%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $51 +$59 +115%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 10 $26 +$28 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $29 23m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $27 24m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $2 30m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $2 30m
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 43¢ $18 31m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $13 49m
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 50¢ $51 49m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $2 52m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $2 52m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $1 54m
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY Kia Tigers 40¢ $4 56m
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 51¢ $70 1h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 51¢ $31 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 46¢ $43 1h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 49¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $26 1h
Moutet vs. Fokina: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 52¢ $44 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $80 10h
Cecilio Waterman: 1+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $26 10h
Jordan Ayew: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $129 10h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 11h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 16¢ $52 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $26 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $102 14h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 54¢ $26 17h
Set Handicap: Jacquet (-1.5) vs Rottgering (+1.5) BUY Rottgering 61¢ $47 18h
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 45¢ $49 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.52 · official $1,288.52 (match) · 3500 history records