Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc46d…e948 politics 269 markets active 16h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%76W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$10
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$9
other 25% −$5
sports 13% −$10
crypto 8% −$1
world 5% $0
economics 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.5% -10.0% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 91 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 158 -0.9% -10.3% 18% 0% -10.3%
all 267 -0.6% -10.1% 28% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses76 / 191
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 269
History coverage138d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 14 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $14 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $18 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 -2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $17 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $20 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $51 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 08 $39 −$2 -5%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 29h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $5 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 48¢ $6 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $7 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 51¢ $7 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $9 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 6d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.00 · official $13.00 (match) · 1446 history records