Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc46d…d906 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$170 (-6%) realized −$124 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$72
world 15% −$58
other 10% −$201
politics 8% −$100
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -36.7% -42.7% 0% 0% -42.7%
≤30d 5 -43.2% -48.6% 20% 20% -27.5%
≤90d 5 -43.2% -48.6% 20% 20% -27.5%
all 27 -6.5% -15.4% 37% 33% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 33% -18.0%
10% -23.5% 33% -25.8%
15% -30.9% 30% -33.0%
20% -37.7% 7% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$46 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$124
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage201d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? No 16¢ $53 $22 −$31 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $167 −$61 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? May 31 $227 −$61 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $70 −$69 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $156 +$72 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $300 −$59 -20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $254 $0 -0%
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Jan 31 $130 +$34 +26%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier Jan 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jan 18 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jan 18 $146 −$97 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 18 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 18 $5 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Shadows vs Eternal Fire Academy - Map 2 Winner Jan 16 $130 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Shadowkek vs Team buster (BO3) Dec 27 $250 −$128 -51%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) Dec 22 $127 −$37 -29%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs megoshort (BO3) Dec 22 $100 −$1 -1%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Dec 21 $100 +$48 +48%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $47 +$228 +488%
Will Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua in 2025? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Dec 20 $60 +$23 +38%
Spread: SS Lazio (-1.5) Dec 20 $65 +$29 +45%
Spread: Brighton & Hove Albion FC (-1.5) Dec 20 $65 +$30 +46%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 02 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FI BUY No 16¢ $55 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA W BUY No $52 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No $106 12h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 12¢ $167 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $166 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes $1 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $227 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $228 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $156 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 28d
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes 44¢ $70 117d
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? BUY Yes $70 117d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A SELL FURIA 61¢ $241 140d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY FURIA 76¢ $300 140d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A SELL TheMongolz 21¢ $54 140d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A SELL G2 81¢ $267 140d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY TheMongolz 21¢ $54 140d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A BUY G2 61¢ $200 140d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $172 153d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier BUY Astralis 23¢ $30 154d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $164 154d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 58¢ $100 154d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY Astralis 19¢ $30 154d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 61¢ $100 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $7 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down $5 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.74 · official $56.74 (match) · 67 history records