Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:11:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc46a…72f1 other 230 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$329 (+1%) realized +$324 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%204W / 22L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$1,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$4
14 days+$47
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$66
politics 6% +$24
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% +$4
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -3.9% -13.1% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 96 -2.1% -11.4% 94% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 218 +4.2% -5.7% 90% 4% -9.3%
all 226 +3.7% -6.2% 90% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -15.2% 3% -18.0%
15% -23.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -30.9% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$24 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$1,105
Realized+$324
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses204 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)226 / 230
History coverage95d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? No 98¢ 99¢ $690 $695 +$5 (+1%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$1 (+0%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 28 $48 +$2 +4%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Jun 27 $330 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Jun 27 $91 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? Jun 27 $344 +$4 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 27 $299 +$1 +0%
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e Jun 24 $251 +$4 +2%
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod Jun 24 $194 +$2 +1%
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $109 +$1 +1%
Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade Jun 24 $94 +$1 +1%
Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Jun 24 $346 +$6 +2%
Will "Music" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 24 $189 +$2 +1%
Will "Disney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee Jun 23 $84 +$1 +1%
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 23 $50 $0 +1%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 23 $67 +$1 +1%
Will "Middle East" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of th Jun 23 $130 +$2 +1%
Will "UFC" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week o Jun 23 $155 +$2 +1%
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week Jun 23 $143 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 133 billion views by July 31? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 8 million views on day Jun 21 $1,024 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Darius" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 21 $26 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Stream" or "Streamer" during his next gaming YouTube Jun 20 $58 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Race" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $57 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 20 $12 +$20 +161%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $125 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $94 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $110 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Jun 20 $61 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week Jun 20 $345 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 53.5 million views on day 6? Jun 19 $99 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 51.5 million views on day Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will "Crypto" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Po Jun 17 $443 $0 +0%
Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience Jun 17 $179 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Jun 17 $612 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 47 million views on day 4? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $251 +$5 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $32 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Jet" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Apple" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Lamborghini" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $237 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week BUY No 98¢ $691 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 99¢ $49 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 95¢ $48 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? BUY No 100¢ $86 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY No 100¢ $299 15h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 99¢ $264 19h
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during BUY Yes 100¢ $299 19h
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 99¢ $9 19h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 99¢ $330 19h
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 98¢ $91 19h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 19h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 10+ times during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 98¢ $75 19h
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 99¢ $79 3d
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 98¢ $11 3d
Will "AI / Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next e BUY Yes 98¢ $162 3d
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 99¢ $104 3d
Will "India / Indian" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3d
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 100¢ $67 3d
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 99¢ $115 3d
Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Pod BUY Yes 98¢ $12 3d
Will "China" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the Lemonade BUY Yes 99¢ $94 3d
Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 99¢ $104 3d
Will "New York" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand BUY Yes 98¢ $242 3d
Will MrBeast hit 133.5 billion views by July 31? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 3d
Will "People" be said 100+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience BUY Yes 99¢ $50 4d
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY Yes 99¢ $67 4d
Will "Disney" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the wee BUY No 99¢ $84 4d
Will "Music" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY No 99¢ $189 4d
Will "Right" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week BUY Yes 100¢ $143 4d
Will "Middle East" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of th BUY Yes 99¢ $130 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,104.89 · official $1,104.90 (match) · 542 history records