Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc469…715e sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 336d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$184 (+21%) realized +$183 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%21W / 13L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$118
14 days+$118
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$21
sports 33% +$162
crypto 4% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +37.4% +24.4% 61% 57% +30.4%
≤30d 23 +37.4% +24.4% 61% 57% +30.4%
≤90d 23 +37.4% +24.4% 61% 57% +30.4%
all 34 +31.6% +19.0% 62% 59% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 59% +22.3%
10% +7.6% 53% +10.6%
15% -2.8% 50% -0.1%
20% -12.3% 47% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$183
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses21 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)34 / 39
History coverage336d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $321 $324 +$4 (+1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 43¢ 40¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 48¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $12 +$22 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 +$17 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$20 +108%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $35 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $34 +$8 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 +$25 +307%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $18 +$20 +112%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 +$11 +124%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$9 +109%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +365%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 +$12 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $11 +$7 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 +$9 +76%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14? Sep 27 $27 +$21 +79%
Vikings vs. Bears Sep 10 $58 +$51 +89%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-08-25? Sep 07 $26 +$26 +100%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 20 $22 +$10 +47%
Will Vitality win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament? Aug 03 $8 +$13 +156%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Dodgers vs. Red Sox Jul 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above $120,000 on July 25? Jul 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22? Jul 23 $16 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 21? Jul 22 $8 +$10 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $8 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $329 31h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 81¢ $34 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $12 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $9 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 46¢ $10 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $8 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $8 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 88¢ $35 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $8 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $9 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 6d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $6 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $9 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 6d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $9 6d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $5 6d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 51¢ $10 6d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 27¢ $7 6d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 24¢ $6 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $11 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.35 · official $371.35 (match) · 69 history records