Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc467…c225 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 331d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%24W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$17
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$4
other 30% −$10
politics 14% −$2
sports 14% +$3
economics 6% +$1
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 31 -3.5% -12.7% 35% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 -1.9% -11.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 83 -1.7% -11.0% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

331d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses24 / 59
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage331d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 78¢ $136 $137 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $134 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $367 −$9 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $243 −$6 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $26 −$3 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $160 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $142 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $157 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $149 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $150 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $643 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $183 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $313 +$1 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $610 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $167 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $140 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $312 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $304 +$11 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $7 −$1 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 26 $139 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $13 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $61 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $281 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $142 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $157 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $159 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $477 +$3 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $142 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $306 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $166 −$7 -4%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $501 +$1 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $141 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $151 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $282 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $155 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $141 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $143 +$1 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $286 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $297 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $136 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $135 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $134 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 37¢ $148 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 37¢ $148 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $95 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $142 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $82 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $79 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $63 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $128 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $156 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $157 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $121 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $21 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $142 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $118 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $142 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.15 · official $137.18 · 407 history records