Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc466…0c26 sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-0%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 158L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$10
other 23% −$5
politics 22% −$3
crypto 11% −$1
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -11.7%
≤90d 59 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 182 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 158
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage150d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $23 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 23 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $88 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $78 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $79 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $12 $0 +2%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 09 $133 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $123 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 31 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $159 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 30 $77 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 30 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 29 $29 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $76 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 27 $50 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $214 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 23 $55 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 1h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $23 13d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $23 13d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 91¢ $23 25d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $24 25d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $20 33d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $20 33d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $22 61d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $22 61d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $22 61d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $22 62d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 62d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 63d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 63d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 63d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $31 63d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $1 63d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $5 63d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $25 63d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $23 64d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $23 64d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $25 64d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $25 64d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $20 64d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $20 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? SELL No 98¢ $20 65d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 98¢ $20 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $31 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $31 65d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $20 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.10 · official $26.10 (match) · 780 history records