Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc464…eea9
crypto · 26 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$5 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses21 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 56¢ 28¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Up 58¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +9.0% -1.3% 91% 57% +0.2%
≤30d 23 +9.0% -1.3% 91% 57% +0.2%
≤90d 23 +9.0% -1.3% 91% 57% +0.2%
all 23 +9.0% -1.3% 91% 57% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 57% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -9.4%
15% -19.4% 13% -18.1%
20% -27.3% 9% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.28 · official $3.28 (match) · 59 history records