Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc464…5139
sports · 49 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
+$507 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$520 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$746
Realized+$520
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses21 / 17
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions11
Markets (closed)38 / 49
History coverage4d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 11 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$673
7 days+$520
14 days+$520
30 days+$520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 69¢ 68¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 48¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 56¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+4%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Over 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Over 65¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $88 $0 −$88 (-100%)
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Over 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $170 $0 −$170 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $31 +$118 +383%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $151 +$72 +48%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $195 +$208 +106%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $99 −$6 -6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $98 +$40 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $136 +$190 +139%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $150 +$98 +66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $101 +$49 +48%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $149 +$60 +40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $31 +$58 +188%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $81 +$59 +73%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $127 +$67 +53%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $128 +$71 +55%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $171 +$93 +54%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $89 +$111 +124%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 +$1 +29%
Togo vs. Benin: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $150 +$88 +59%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $152 +$86 +57%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $202 +$120 +59%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $40 +$27 +68%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $151 +$39 +26%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $172 −$170 -99%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $172 −$170 -99%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $51 +$32 +63%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% +$517
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $49 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $1 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 25¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 28¢ $31 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $53 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $31 2h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $61 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $51 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $148 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $31 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $224 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $355 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $96 8h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $47 8h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $91 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $93 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $93 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $49 8h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $151 8h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $39 9h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $139 9h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $48 10h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 11h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $50 11h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 55% +3.3%
≤30d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 55% +3.3%
≤90d 38 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 55% +3.3%
all 38 +4.6% -5.4% 55% 55% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 55% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 55% -6.5%
15% -22.7% 50% -15.6%
20% -30.3% 39% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $746.16 · official $746.16 (match) · 128 history records