Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc462…d348 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 347d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,564 (-26%) realized −$2,562 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%26W / 61L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$166
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$2,403
sports 14% +$267
crypto 3% −$231
culture 1% −$130
world 1% +$6
politics 0% +$50
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 50% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 44% 44% -21.7%
≤90d 21 -38.1% -44.0% 29% 29% -54.9%
all 87 -15.0% -23.1% 30% 25% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 25% -33.4%
10% -30.5% 23% -39.8%
15% -37.2% 18% -45.6%
20% -43.3% 16% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -43% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$68 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

347d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$2,562
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses26 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 91
History coverage347d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$13 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$35 +70%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $51 +$130 +253%
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? May 15 $236 +$92 +39%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? May 11 $256 +$69 +27%
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? May 09 $4 −$3 -67%
Will "Batman" be said on ICEMAN? May 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 09 $20 −$13 -66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 27? Apr 25 $100 −$93 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 25 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $3,128 −$1,664 -53%
Will Trump say "Obama" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $1,100 −$750 -68%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 07 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 02 $6 +$4 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 02 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $766 +$75 +10%
The Ring - High Stakes: Ryan Garcia vs. Mario Barrios Feb 22 $300 +$91 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $300 +$668 +223%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Feb 22 $5 +$43 +861%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Feb 09 $467 +$5 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $6 +$3 +44%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $790 +$275 +35%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 09 $80 +$4 +5%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 06 $1 +$8 +778%
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $60 −$60 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $71 −$16 -22%
Will Mike Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Dec 29 $10 $0 +2%
TCU vs. North Carolina Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times during the McDonald's Summi Dec 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Dak Prescott score a Touchdown in the Cowboys vs. Eagles game? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bryan Johnson say "Erection" while tripping balls? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana above $220 on September 5? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during the McDonald's Summit on Nove Dec 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel allow independent journalists into Gaza by December 31? Dec 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin above $114K on September 5? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike 0 countries in December 2025? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $51 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $50 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $51 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $51 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $139 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 6d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 22d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 22d
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? BUY No 6¢ $10 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 44¢ $102 22d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 28d
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? BUY Yes 31¢ $103 32d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 37d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 37d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $41 37d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? SELL Yes 89¢ $325 37d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 37d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 38d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 72¢ $95 38d
Will Drake feature 21 Savage on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 38d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $7 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $46 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $28 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 69¢ $69 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 39d
Will Drake feature Future on ICEMAN? BUY Yes 70¢ $24 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.21 · official $73.21 (match) · 227 history records