Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc460…0aa4 sports 741 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+0%) realized −$247 · open +$373
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%338W / 401L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$234
14 days+$728
30 days+$929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1,421
sports 23% −$788
other 14% +$250
crypto 1% −$336
economics 1% +$83
politics 0% −$126
culture 0% −$38
finance 0% −$20
weather 0% −$5
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.7% -50.0% 20% 10% -11.1%
≤30d 22 +2.8% -7.0% 32% 23% -5.4%
≤90d 92 -21.8% -29.3% 35% 32% -6.8%
all 739 -12.2% -20.5% 46% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 41% -9.3%
10% -28.1% 37% -18.0%
15% -35.1% 31% -25.9%
20% -41.5% 26% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$4,465
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$373
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses338 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)739 / 741
History coverage239d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 78¢ $3,333 $3,663 +$330 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 13¢ 14¢ $759 $802 +$43 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 322 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $3,545 −$38 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $9,231 +$19 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 16 $6 +$2 +43%
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 16 $3 −$3 -91%
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w Jun 16 $3 −$3 -86%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $65 −$36 -56%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $69 −$27 -39%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $102 −$18 -18%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $45 −$17 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $35 −$4 -11%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $64 −$15 -23%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $71 −$6 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $5,629 +$999 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 06 $67 +$6 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,294 +$200 +16%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 23 $2 $0 -2%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? May 21 $8 +$1 +16%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? May 12 $2 $0 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 12 $43 +$39 +91%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $64 +$24 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 05 $26 +$3 +12%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $42 −$41 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $9 +$1 +10%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $17 −$17 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $8 +$16 +192%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 30 $17 +$20 +119%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $39 −$38 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $8 −$8 -98%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $17 −$17 -98%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $17 −$17 -98%
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $17 −$17 -98%
Vitória SC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $17 +$22 +129%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Apr 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Trabzonspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 1.5 Apr 21 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $17 −$17 -98%
FC Arouca vs. CF Estrela da Amadora: O/U 1.5 Apr 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $8 +$12 +150%
Toronto FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $10 +$10 +104%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $620 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $125 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 11¢ $15 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $3,333 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $3,348 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $3,435 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $3,435 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $99 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $4 3d
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions w SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $72 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL No 29¢ $28 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $42 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $29 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $29 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $242 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $28 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $31 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 31¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $56 7d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $49 7d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $3 7d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $53 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,464.83 · official $4,464.83 (match) · 1349 history records