Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc457…22c4 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$3
world 30% +$2
culture 14% +$1
politics 10% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 41 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage302d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $64 +$1 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $71 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 11 $139 $0 +0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $141 −$2 -2%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 10 $17 −$1 -3%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary? Sep 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 11 $18 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $33 $0 -1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 09 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 28 $7 $0 -2%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Aug 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $5 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $36 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $35 19d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $28 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $7 20d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $35 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $30 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $34 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $17 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $7 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.98 · official $34.98 (match) · 142 history records