Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc457…7fcd other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$1
other 28% +$2
world 22% $0
economics 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 40 +2.2% -7.6% 35% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.3%
10% -16.4% 5% -18.0%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage375d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $67 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on Aug Aug 15 $1 $0 +47%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 11 $27 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 10 $3 $0 -5%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Aug 10 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 03 $1 $0 +24%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 25 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $3 $0 +15%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Boca Juniors win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 13 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 40m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $14 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $26 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $28 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $31 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $31 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 9d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 313d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $12 313d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $12 313d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 313d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY No 99¢ $12 313d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 91¢ $12 313d
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 91¢ $12 313d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 313d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 156 history records