Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc456…4080 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-39%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$7
other 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-55.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -50.6% -55.3% 7% 7% -54.5%
≤30d 14 -50.6% -55.3% 7% 7% -54.5%
≤90d 14 -50.6% -55.3% 7% 7% -54.5%
all 14 -50.6% -55.3% 7% 7% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.3% 7% -54.5%
10% -59.6% 7% -58.9%
15% -63.5% 7% -62.9%
20% -67.1% 7% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -96% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 4¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +437%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 11h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $6 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 33h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 1¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.66 (match) · 20 history records