trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -32.6% | -39.0% | 0% | 0% | -39.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +25.4% | +13.5% | 50% | 50% | +22.2% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 60% | 40% | +19.9% |
| all | 22 | +9.0% | -1.4% | 45% | 36% | +12.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -1.4% | 36% | +12.9% |
| 10% | -10.8% | 27% | +2.1% |
| 15% | -19.4% | 18% | -7.8% |
| 20% | -27.3% | 18% | -16.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 55¢ | 67¢ | $575 | $697 | +$121 (+21%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Jun 23 | $295 | −$96 | -33% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | Jun 12 | $413 | +$345 | +83% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Mar 29 | $235 | +$76 | +32% |
| Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? | Mar 27 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? | Mar 26 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | Mar 06 | $85 | +$17 | +20% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Feb 20 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Feb 03 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | Feb 03 | $21 | +$17 | +80% |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Feb 03 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | Jan 02 | $268 | +$27 | +10% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? | Jan 01 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? | Dec 27 | $47 | −$6 | -14% |
| Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? | Dec 22 | $13 | −$2 | -13% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 21 | $3 | −$2 | -79% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? | Dec 14 | $216 | +$58 | +27% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 01 | $326 | +$55 | +17% |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Nov 30 | $10 | −$6 | -59% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Nov 27 | $10 | +$39 | +388% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? | Nov 21 | $73 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Nov 17 | $35 | +$48 | +137% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? | Aug 11 | $72 | −$13 | -18% |