Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc451…c637 world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$661 (+23%) realized +$540 · open +$121
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days−$96
14 days+$249
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$561
culture 35% +$104
politics 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -32.6% -39.0% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤30d 2 +25.4% +13.5% 50% 50% +22.2%
≤90d 5 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 40% +19.9%
all 22 +9.0% -1.4% 45% 36% +12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 36% +12.9%
10% -10.8% 27% +2.1%
15% -19.4% 18% -7.8%
20% -27.3% 18% -16.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$13 · ×5.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.34 per $1 lost it wins $4.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$697
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage316d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 55¢ 67¢ $575 $697 +$121 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 23 $295 −$96 -33%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $413 +$345 +83%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 29 $235 +$76 +32%
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Mar 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Mar 06 $85 +$17 +20%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? Feb 03 $21 +$17 +80%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Jan 02 $268 +$27 +10%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Jan 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 27 $47 −$6 -14%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15? Dec 22 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Dec 14 $216 +$58 +27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 01 $326 +$55 +17%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 30 $10 −$6 -59%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 27 $10 +$39 +388%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30? Nov 21 $73 −$1 -1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 17 $35 +$48 +137%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Aug 11 $72 −$13 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $81 1h
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $588 8d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $168 10d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $758 10d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $301 85d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 71¢ $301 85d
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30? BUY No $11 88d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 88d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $33 88d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $32 88d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $10 108d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $50 108d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? SELL No 83¢ $60 108d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 122d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 122d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 28¢ $20 122d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $20 122d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY No 49¢ $35 137d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $35 137d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY Yes 19¢ $18 139d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $20 139d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? SELL No 82¢ $38 139d
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? BUY No $2 139d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 139d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 46¢ $20 172d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? SELL No 76¢ $20 172d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? BUY No 39¢ $1 172d
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? SELL No 27¢ $1 172d
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $1 177d
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? BUY No $1 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $696.98 · official $696.98 (match) · 218 history records