Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:35:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc451…1ff6 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-6%) realized −$87 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate63%77W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% $0
other 33% −$35
crypto 30% −$36
weather 1% −$4
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +49.4% +35.2% 75% 75% +50.9%
≤30d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 58% 58% +29.8%
≤90d 91 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 43% -5.4%
all 122 -6.6% -15.5% 63% 44% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -16.1%
10% -23.6% 30% -24.1%
15% -30.9% 22% -31.5%
20% -37.7% 16% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$207
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses77 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)122 / 129
History coverage124d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 +$28 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 30 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 −$3 -98%
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina Apr 27 $1 $0 +24%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +62%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22? Apr 21 $3 $0 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 13 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 13 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 13 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 12 $9 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 +$6 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 08 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 08 $13 −$11 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 06 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 06 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 06 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 06 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 06 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 05 $8 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 05 $4 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $3 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $2 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $2 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $3 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 9d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 22d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 42d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 49d
Madrid Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina BUY Elena Rybakina 80¢ $1 56d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 57d
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 58d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 22? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 61d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 61d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 23? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.07 · official $212.07 · 319 history records