Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:42:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc450…b764 other 32 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$245 (+11%) realized +$246 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$539
7 days+$19
14 days+$188
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$48
sports 5% +$71
crypto 5% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -8.8% -17.5% 30% 30% -8.6%
≤30d 31 -4.1% -13.3% 32% 32% -1.2%
≤90d 31 -4.1% -13.3% 32% 32% -1.2%
all 31 -4.1% -13.3% 32% 32% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -1.2%
10% -21.6% 32% -10.7%
15% -29.1% 32% -19.3%
20% -36.1% 29% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$50 · ×2.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$246
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $67 +$228 +340%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $103 +$125 +121%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $134 +$200 +149%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 +$161 +864%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $188 +$87 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$68 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$32 +63%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 +$62 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$31 -84%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 +$110 +107%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $123 +$169 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $104 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $67 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $134 12h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $133 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $122 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $16 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes $29 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 4d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $19 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $82 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 4d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 5d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 26¢ $24 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.06 · official $99.06 (match) · 68 history records