Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc450…6b80
other · 37 markets active 1d ago
1.0score
+$1,535 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,754 · open −$218
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63,484
Realized+$1,754
Unrealized−$218
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions21
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage221d
Avg bet$3,115
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 21 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,600
7 days−$2,798
14 days−$1,982
30 days−$1,982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $39,000 $13,221 −$25,779 (-66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $1,300 $12,519 +$11,219 (+863%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $1,300 $8,463 +$7,163 (+551%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $1,300 $8,151 +$6,851 (+527%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $1,300 $6,669 +$5,369 (+413%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $1,300 $6,591 +$5,291 (+407%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $1,300 $4,017 +$2,717 (+209%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1,300 $3,385 +$2,085 (+160%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $39 −$1,261 (-97%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $0 −$1,300 (-100%)
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1,300 $0 −$1,300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,300 −$1,300 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $13 −$6 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $103 −$26 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $371 −$166 -45%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 7? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on April 7? Jun 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on April 7? Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 on April 7? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on April 7? Jun 03 $11 −$11 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,419 +$1,954 +36%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $30 −$15 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 7? Apr 30 $62 +$46 +75%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 07 $1,915 −$356 -19%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 24 $2,525 +$2,604 +103%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Mar 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Mar 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 16 $1,000 −$22 -2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 05 $14,810 +$1,301 +9%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 05 $50 +$18 +35%
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 05 $1,115 +$218 +20%
Will Donald Trump say "nuclear" 3+ times during Israel President event Jan 04 $248 +$41 +17%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Jan 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? Jan 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Decembe Jan 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Jan 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Jan 02 $43 −$43 -100%
Will "Marty Supreme" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 11.5m? Jan 02 $440 +$11 +2%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jan 02 $250 +$426 +170%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $500 +$60 +12%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Dec 30 $500 +$193 +39%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $250 +$31 +12%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $4,650 −$268 -6%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $512 −$8 -2%
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 20 $830 −$10 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% +$3,534
crypto 5% +$664
culture 0% +$11
world 0% +$26
tech 0% −$70
politics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $303 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $605 24h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $681 25h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $530 25h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $303 25h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $32 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $53 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $125 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $100 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $100 27h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $833 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,363 27h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,590 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,741 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 27h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -63.5% -66.9% 0% 0% -91.6%
≤30d 12 -73.4% -76.0% 8% 8% -28.1%
≤90d 19 -56.4% -60.6% 16% 16% -10.0%
all 37 -34.2% -40.5% 32% 27% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.5% 27% -5.5%
10% -46.2% 16% -14.6%
15% -51.4% 16% -22.8%
20% -56.2% 8% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63,484.49 · official $63,648.28 (match) · 368 history records