Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C4 0xc44b…4048 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$229 (-7%) realized −$252 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%13W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$124
other 39% −$429
crypto 3% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 1 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤90d 14 -20.6% -28.1% 50% 43% -23.0%
all 23 -3.5% -12.7% 57% 52% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 52% -16.4%
10% -21.0% 39% -24.4%
15% -28.7% 39% -31.7%
20% -35.7% 26% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$119 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses13 / 10
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage238d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Beşiktaş Esports 48¢ 74¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Sharks 61¢ 72¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B ECHO 48¢ 31¢ $21 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $25 +$2 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 08 $492 −$323 -66%
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner May 05 $243 +$124 +51%
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 May 03 $400 +$255 +64%
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla May 03 $102 −$95 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Apr 30 $141 −$135 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 29 $4 +$2 +57%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Apr 29 $521 −$521 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,100,000,000 and 8,200,000,000 gifts for C Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Apr 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Valorant: Melilla Titans vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph Apr 28 $343 +$142 +41%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 13 $95 +$14 +15%
Valorant: Bonk vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Apr 12 $130 +$180 +139%
Ethereum Up or Down on December 21? Dec 21 $50 −$13 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Dec 21 $50 +$61 +121%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Dec 21 $20 −$6 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 04 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 04 $228 −$41 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $110 +$14 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 03 $50 +$19 +37%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 31 $100 +$52 +52%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $80 +$35 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Beşiktaş Esports 62¢ $27 1h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Beşiktaş Esports 57¢ $25 2h
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY Beşiktaş Esports 48¢ $51 6h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 61¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 48¢ $22 7h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $169 48d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $492 48d
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner SELL GIANTX GC 99¢ $366 50d
Valorant: GIANTX GC vs FOKUS Sakura - Map 2 Winner BUY GIANTX GC 65¢ $243 50d
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 SELL KPI Gaming 100¢ $654 53d
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 BUY KPI Gaming 63¢ $303 53d
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla SELL DNSTY 3¢ $5 53d
Valorant: KPI Gaming vs HGE Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 BUY KPI Gaming 52¢ $96 53d
Valorant: DNSTY vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Phase 2 Pla BUY DNSTY 26¢ $102 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 55d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? SELL No 0¢ $6 55d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $7 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 57d
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? BUY No 8¢ $136 57d
Valorant: Melilla Titans vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph SELL FALKE ESPORTS 100¢ $485 58d
Valorant: Melilla Titans vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising Ph BUY FALKE ESPORTS 70¢ $343 58d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising BUY NOVO Esports 12¢ $21 58d
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs NOVO Esports (BO3) - VCL Spain: Rising BUY NOVO Esports 51¢ $500 58d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A SELL Pixel Lumina 12¢ $21 72d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A BUY Pixel Lumina 30¢ $50 72d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A SELL Pixel Lumina 77¢ $88 72d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A BUY Pixel Lumina 47¢ $30 72d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A BUY Pixel Lumina 29¢ $15 72d
Valorant: Bonk vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A SELL Bonk 100¢ $310 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.13 · official $115.24 (match) · 59 history records