Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:01:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc44a…0f0e other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$281 (+2%) realized +$281 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate35%22W / 41L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$82
14 days−$155
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -8.2% -17.0% 28% 17% -11.7%
≤30d 63 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 16% -11.8%
≤90d 63 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 16% -11.8%
all 63 -9.8% -18.4% 35% 16% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.4% 16% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 6% -20.2%
15% -33.3% 3% -27.9%
20% -39.9% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$25 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$281
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses22 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage30d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $69 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $43 −$9 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $106 −$9 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $57 −$23 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $323 +$56 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $22 −$4 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $349 −$26 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $280 +$30 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $24 −$8 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $205 +$69 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $351 −$57 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$8 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $48 −$2 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $649 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $207 −$49 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $166 +$4 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $276 −$28 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $348 −$49 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $481 +$14 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $118 −$41 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $166 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $559 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $81 +$24 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $88 −$29 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $106 −$34 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $171 +$14 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $472 +$8 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $897 −$9 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $74 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $204 +$21 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $240 −$38 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $99 −$68 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $241 +$333 +138%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $229 −$19 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $528 +$12 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? May 31 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $29 +$6 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $53 +$37 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $509 −$25 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $232 −$50 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $331 +$44 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $112 −$21 -19%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $155 +$32 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $228 −$82 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $596 −$16 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $84 −$20 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $345 −$39 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $186 −$42 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $67 36m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $58 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $34 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $27 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $31 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $14 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 9h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 10h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 10h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $70 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 924 history records