Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc445…6251
crypto · 507 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$51 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses390 / 116
Open positions1
Markets (closed)506 / 507
History coverage8d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day142.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 506 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$43
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 64¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$10 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$19 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$12 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $36 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 449 -1.3% -10.7% 78% 54% -10.9%
≤30d 506 -1.9% -11.2% 77% 54% -11.0%
≤90d 506 -1.9% -11.2% 77% 54% -11.0%
all 506 -1.9% -11.2% 77% 54% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover142.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 54% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 26% -19.5%
15% -27.5% 11% -27.3%
20% -34.6% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.77 · official $9.61 (match) · 1166 history records