Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:07:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc444…7584 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate27%10W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$8
other 17% +$6
sports 9% +$3
politics 8% $0
crypto 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 0% -11.3%
all 37 +1.3% -8.4% 27% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 8% -9.7%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.1% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses10 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage486d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $37 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $31 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $36 −$5 -14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 18 $36 −$1 -2%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 +$5 +51%
Will the Liberal Party win by 125–149 seats? Apr 25 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $11 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $3 $0 +6%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $12 $0 -0%
Ohio State vs. USC Feb 26 $12 $0 +0%
Bucknell vs. Loyola Maryland Feb 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bellarmine vs. Florida Gulf Coast Feb 26 $10 $0 +0%
South Carolina vs. Missouri Feb 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $13 −$2 -17%
Portland vs. St. Mary's Feb 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $29 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $10 36h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $19 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $26 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $30 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $15 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $14 26d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 89¢ $30 26d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $34 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $34 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 46¢ $3 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.40 · official $29.40 (match) · 93 history records