Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc444…416c sports 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+1%) realized +$82 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%57W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$835
7 days−$395
14 days−$234
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% $0
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.9% -13.0% 49% 49% -17.8%
≤30d 104 -0.4% -9.9% 53% 53% -10.6%
≤90d 106 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 54% -9.6%
all 106 +1.7% -8.0% 54% 54% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 54% -9.6%
10% -16.8% 50% -18.2%
15% -24.8% 46% -26.1%
20% -32.2% 40% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$76 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses57 / 49
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage31d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Under 49¢ 68¢ $230 $317 +$87 (+38%)
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Team Nemesis 20¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $158 −$64 -40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $296 +$89 +30%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $302 −$298 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $241 −$238 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $100 +$40 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $99 −$98 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $114 −$112 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $159 −$157 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $177 +$97 +55%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $100 +$76 +76%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $136 −$134 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$67 +67%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $168 +$139 +83%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $91 +$75 +83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 +$600 +650%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 +$60 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $255 +$76 +30%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 −$113 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $95 +$19 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $126 −$31 -25%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $98 +$28 +29%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $98 −$97 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $103 −$102 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $92 −$91 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $98 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $57 +$53 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $67 +$42 +62%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $96 +$70 +73%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$101 +101%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $46 +$43 +93%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $64 +$32 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $49 +$64 +132%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $50 +$43 +87%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $50 +$50 +101%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $108 +$114 +106%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$26 -51%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $100 +$133 +133%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $54 −$53 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $234 34m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $10 36m
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 61¢ $6 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 37¢ $84 1h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 64¢ $152 1h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 20¢ $87 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $385 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 76¢ $296 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $302 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $241 7h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 71¢ $100 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $99 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $114 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $159 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $177 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $100 31h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 62¢ $136 32h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 59¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $168 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $91 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 13¢ $92 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $191 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $131 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $331 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $255 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 75¢ $114 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $114 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.37 · official $317.37 (match) · 178 history records