Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc443…f19f
other · 54 markets active 114d ago
0.0score
+$310,588 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$310,588 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$310,588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 54
History coverage470d
Avg bet$281,615
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 0 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458,327
7 days−$458,327
14 days−$458,327
30 days−$458,327
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $301,434 $0 −$301,434 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September? Jun 12 $301,434 −$458,327 -152%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Mar 03 $58 −$58 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $153 −$153 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Mar 03 $77 +$23 +30%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Mar 03 $168 +$32 +19%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 03 $166 +$34 +20%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Mar 03 $174 +$26 +15%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Mar 03 $176 +$24 +14%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 03 $180 +$20 +11%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Mar 03 $189 +$11 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Mar 03 $185 +$15 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $195 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Feb 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) Feb 14 $19,997 −$19,997 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Feb 14 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Feb 14 $4,999 −$4,999 -100%
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Feb 14 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 14 $73 −$73 -100%
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch? Feb 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 14 $111,597 −$104,997 -94%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Feb 14 $8,987 −$8,987 -100%
Espresso FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 14 $678 −$678 -100%
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? Feb 14 $895 −$895 -100%
Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 14 $5,480 −$5,480 -100%
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch? Feb 14 $11,577 −$11,577 -100%
Espresso FDV above $100M one day after launch? Feb 14 $8,010 +$503 +6%
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1,493 +$55 +4%
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $6,816 +$153 +2%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $424,004 +$1,845 +0%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $289,692 −$10,630 -4%
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $28,107 +$9,769 +35%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 28 $49,500 +$57,318 +116%
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier Jul 20 $39,996 +$34,071 +85%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 13 $9,956 +$3,144 +32%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $6,260,033 +$134,856 +2%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 22 $5,749,023 +$35,639 +1%
Will Georgia be the tipping point state? Jan 21 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Jan 21 $69,305 −$21,520 -31%
Will Wisconsin be the tipping point state? Jan 21 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $50,000 +$505 +1%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $34,993 +$3,461 +10%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $71,662 +$1,635 +2%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Nov 14 $84,621 +$3,526 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 13 $107,003 +$1,664 +2%
Will Biden finish his term? Nov 11 $64,120 −$1,394 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 47% +$106,005
tech 38% +$35,639
politics 13% +$737,335
sports 1% −$88,478
world 0% −$21,541
crypto 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $94 113d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $73 113d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $77 113d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $82 113d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 113d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $84 113d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $85 113d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $88 113d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 113d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 113d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 113d
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $58 113d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $83 113d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 114d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 114d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 114d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 114d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 114d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $90 114d
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $92 114d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 114d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 114d
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 119d
Espresso FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 119d
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 119d
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 119d
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 119d
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 119d
Espresso FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 119d
Espresso FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 55 -29.2% -36.0% 56% 22% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.0% 22% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.1% 13% -15.7%
15% -47.7% 7% -23.9%
20% -52.8% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records