Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C4 0xc443…7046 sports 33 markets active 3h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$321 (+8%) realized +$332 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$201
14 days+$285
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$312
other 10% +$1
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +113.9% +93.6% 100% 100% +93.6%
≤30d 2 +103.6% +84.2% 100% 100% +87.2%
≤90d 8 +53.7% +39.1% 88% 62% +64.1%
all 31 -0.1% -9.7% 58% 39% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 39% -1.9%
10% -18.3% 39% -11.3%
15% -26.2% 39% -19.8%
20% -33.4% 39% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$126 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$332
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage225d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $371 $361 −$11 (-3%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 19 $176 +$201 +114%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 08 $91 +$84 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 03 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 23 $336 +$427 +127%
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) Apr 13 $184 +$172 +93%
Kings vs. Nets Apr 05 $92 +$92 +100%
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5 Mar 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 24 $198 −$198 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 19 $8 $0 +0%
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) Feb 19 $101 +$89 +89%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 Feb 02 $93 −$93 -100%
Jazz vs. Mavericks Jan 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5 Jan 06 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 Dec 26 $108 −$108 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 20 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 16 $10 $0 +0%
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5 Dec 16 $111 +$109 +98%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 08 $357 −$357 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5 Dec 07 $180 +$180 +100%
Stars vs. Devils Dec 05 $90 +$90 +100%
Pistons vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5 Nov 26 $240 +$240 +100%
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 247.5 Nov 24 $107 +$95 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 19 $150 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 17 $50 +$45 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 202 Nov 15 $105 $0 +0%
Jaguars vs. Texans Nov 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 08 $49 +$1 +1%
Capitals vs. Penguins Nov 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $377 2h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $176 10d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $91 15d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 51¢ $58 42d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $1 42d
Golden Knights vs. Ducks BUY Ducks 50¢ $31 42d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 47d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 66d
Rangers vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 44¢ $336 66d
Spread: Celtics (-9.5) BUY Celtics 51¢ $184 75d
Kings vs. Nets BUY Nets 50¢ $92 82d
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $92 106d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 53¢ $198 120d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $8 127d
Spread: Lakers (-6.5) BUY Lakers 53¢ $101 127d
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5 BUY Over 50¢ $93 141d
Jazz vs. Mavericks BUY Jazz 50¢ $89 155d
Titans vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5 BUY Under 49¢ $103 166d
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 177d
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 BUY Over 49¢ $103 177d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY Yes $10 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes $1 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? SELL Yes $9 184d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY Yes $10 184d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $10 184d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Rams 51¢ $220 185d
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 187d
Commanders vs. Giants: O/U 46.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 187d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $100 187d
Warriors vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 51¢ $357 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.73 · official $452.73 (match) · 117 history records