Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C4 0xc43e…1c73 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$40 (+20%) realized +$38 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$15
other 30% −$17
finance 15% +$46
world 13% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -20.8% -28.3% 33% 33% -27.1%
≤30d 8 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 38% -13.4%
≤90d 12 +26.6% +14.6% 42% 42% +14.9%
all 12 +26.6% +14.6% 42% 42% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.6% 42% +14.9%
10% +3.6% 42% +3.9%
15% -6.4% 42% -6.1%
20% -15.6% 42% -15.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$6 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage106d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$5 +100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 +$8 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 05 $10 +$18 +180%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$14 +285%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? Apr 01 $25 +$32 +127%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 26 $10 −$3 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.75 · official $31.75 (match) · 73 history records