Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc43d…e2bc other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$22
14 days+$13
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$15
sports 29% +$13
crypto 13% −$29
world 3% −$4
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.2% -12.4% 43% 33% +2.4%
≤30d 36 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 36% -4.0%
≤90d 75 -7.0% -15.8% 37% 35% -10.5%
all 75 -7.0% -15.8% 37% 35% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 35% -10.5%
10% -23.9% 33% -19.1%
15% -31.2% 29% -26.9%
20% -38.0% 24% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 78
History coverage74d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 67¢ 66¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 21 $42 +$39 +94%
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 21 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6 −$2 -36%
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 +6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 +10%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +32%
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $9 −$5 -58%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9 +$5 +50%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 +$9 +181%
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 05 $5 +$10 +188%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 +$26 +129%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $13 −$1 -6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -9%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -3%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $5 +$2 +42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Dallas Cowboys draft Caleb Downs in the 2026 pro football draft? Apr 24 $1 +$3 +253%
Will David Bailey be the third pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Pittsburgh Steelers draft Ty Simpson in the 2026 pro football dra Apr 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $29 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $33 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $2 10h
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 58¢ $1 10h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 10h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL Yes 34¢ $4 10h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 10h
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 58¢ $5 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 10h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 10h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 10h
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazili SELL Yes 35¢ $7 10h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $18 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $3 4d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 6d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 55¢ $11 7d
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $10 7d
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $9 7d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.11 · official $81.11 (match) · 172 history records