Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc43d…8c3c
sports · 66 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$105 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$106 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$20
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage589d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 1 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $110 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $12 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $9 +$9 +101%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $59 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 +$5 +72%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $11 +$5 +48%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $10 +$7 +64%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors Mar 31 $29 +$10 +35%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) Mar 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Oilers vs. Blues Mar 27 $36 −$36 -100%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 25 $35 $0 +0%
Senators vs. Rangers Mar 25 $24 +$13 +54%
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 158.5 Mar 19 $34 +$31 +92%
Warriors vs. Wizards Mar 17 $23 +$8 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$42
politics 6% −$6
other 2% −$13
sports 2% −$46
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 20h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 21h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 23h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 44h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 46h
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $9 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 +6.2% -3.9% 19% 6% -5.0%
≤90d 50 -4.6% -13.7% 28% 18% -13.7%
all 65 -2.9% -12.2% 25% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 15% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 15% -18.5%
15% -28.2% 12% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 11% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.13 · official $20.13 (match) · 249 history records