Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:55:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc43a…8629 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (178 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate73%40W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day178.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (178 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 69% -13.3%
≤30d 55 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 69% -13.3%
≤90d 55 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 69% -13.3%
all 55 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 69% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover178.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 69% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -21.6%
15% -23.6% 22% -29.2%
20% -31.1% 13% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$33 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage1d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day178.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 24 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $60 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$27 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$16 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $90 +$70 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $49 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$17 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$43 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $80 −$58 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$35 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $48 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$5 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records