Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc436…afbc sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +218% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +188% what you keep after slip
Net edge+188%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,881
crypto 14% −$48
other 9% −$17
politics 8% −$22
world 2% +$3
tech 2% −$10
finance 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+187.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +277.3% +241.3% 40% 40% +881.4%
≤30d 16 +305.9% +267.3% 38% 38% +522.1%
≤90d 22 +217.9% +187.7% 32% 32% +433.8%
all 22 +217.9% +187.7% 32% 32% +433.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +187.7% 32% +433.8%
10% +160.1% 27% +382.8%
15% +135.0% 27% +336.1%
20% +112.0% 27% +293.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +490% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +218% · $-wt +490% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +459% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$10 · ×42.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.93 per $1 lost it wins $19.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 34
History coverage40d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$16 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -94%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $136 +$2,163 +1594%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$1 -4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$411 +1999%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp Jun 16 $15 +$257 +1668%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$35 +114%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 02 $31 −$14 -47%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 02 $31 −$6 -19%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House May 31 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $10 −$6 -56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 25 $21 −$12 -56%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Kinoa (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 24 $20 +$35 +172%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? May 23 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 20 $5 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Brazil win on 202 BUY 18¢ $20 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 46h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AN BUY $45 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY $35 3d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY $68 4d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Tunisia vs. Net BUY $91 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY $68 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY $68 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $24 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo BUY $26 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY $15 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up $27 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up $5 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Ira BUY $15 8d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY $21 8d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) AND Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina BUY $21 11d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a dra BUY $21 13d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. Egyp BUY $15 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a dra BUY $31 15d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY $26 16d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 16d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND BUY $26 16d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $19.52 · 71 history records