Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc435…2494 sports 455 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$69 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%138W / 316L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$336est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,213
7 days+$957
14 days+$486
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$472
world 25% +$1,390
politics 15% −$1,579
other 14% −$1,022
crypto 2% +$256
tech 1% −$174
economics 1% −$84
weather 1% −$204
culture 0% −$58
finance 0% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +4.0% -5.9% 37% 30% +3.0%
≤30d 207 -12.0% -20.3% 34% 27% -8.9%
≤90d 371 -15.9% -23.9% 30% 24% -12.1%
all 454 -13.5% -21.7% 30% 25% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 25% -11.8%
10% -29.2% 22% -20.3%
15% -36.1% 19% -28.0%
20% -42.3% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$33 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses138 / 316
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$336
Open positions1
Markets (closed)454 / 455
History coverage136d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 454 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 26¢ 24¢ $166 $156 −$10 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $196 −$55 -28%
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz Jun 17 $108 +$59 +54%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $1,238 −$33 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $66 −$12 -19%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $251 −$63 -25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $95 −$74 -78%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $275 −$39 -14%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $170 +$94 +56%
Set 1 Winner: Norrie vs Fokina Jun 16 $128 −$60 -47%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $412 −$284 -69%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $320 +$153 +48%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $75 +$6 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $29 −$24 -84%
Set 1 Winner: Minaur vs Diallo Jun 16 $85 +$36 +42%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $188 +$47 +25%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $53 +$34 +63%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $125 −$72 -58%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $293 +$232 +79%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $391 −$382 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $290 +$1,623 +559%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $258 −$159 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $351 −$351 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $117 +$402 +344%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $293 +$8 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Borges vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $161 +$32 +20%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $76 +$135 +177%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $103 +$23 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $253 −$58 -23%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $45 −$33 -72%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $81 −$38 -47%
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Marton Fucsovics: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Set Handicap: Maneiro (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Yannick Hanfmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $31 −$24 -76%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $40 −$22 -56%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $37 +$4 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $30 −$3 -11%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 10 $39 −$19 -48%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $16 +$61 +371%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 10 $48 −$48 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $42 +$45 +107%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 10 $27 −$26 -96%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be less than $600M at market close Jun 09 $30 −$28 -94%
Will a candidate win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election in the firs Jun 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $86 −$86 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $166 5m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 76¢ $766 6m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 77¢ $490 9m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 77¢ $196 15m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 77¢ $97 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 29¢ $97 17m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $141 23m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Zizou Bergs 36¢ $141 24m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 48¢ $196 27m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 75¢ $119 58m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 37¢ $106 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 58¢ $166 1h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz SELL Fritz 99¢ $166 1h
Set 1 Winner: Bergs vs Fritz BUY Fritz 63¢ $108 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 32¢ $108 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 47¢ $73 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 45¢ $81 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 9¢ $54 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $66 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 42¢ $167 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $158 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $188 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 54¢ $272 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 25¢ $129 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $71 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $180 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 71¢ $489 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 75¢ $216 4h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $21 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.42 · official $156.42 (match) · 1571 history records