Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:36:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc430…1ebf other 23 markets active 3h ago coverage 16d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (219 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,112 (-4%) realized −$72,792 · open +$52,680
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21,843per market
Trades / day218.8pace
Fees−$3,220est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$296,193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$23,324
sports 44% +$48,954
crypto 2% +$2,155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 33% -20.2%
≤30d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 36% -18.4%
≤90d 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 36% -18.4%
all 11 -4.3% -13.4% 45% 36% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.4% 36% -18.4%
10% -21.7% 36% -26.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 36% -33.3%
20% -36.2% 36% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
150.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25,078 vs −$25,048 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$296,193
Realized−$72,792
Unrealized+$52,680
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3,220
Open positions12
Markets (closed)11 / 23
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$21,843
Trades / day218.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 81¢ $102,110 $148,588 +$46,478 (+46%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $46,159 $53,550 +$7,391 (+16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $27,013 $29,291 +$2,278 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 46¢ 56¢ $9,826 $11,980 +$2,155 (+22%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 24¢ $17,000 $11,750 −$5,250 (-31%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17,297 $11,264 −$6,033 (-35%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6,722 $11,000 +$4,278 (+64%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 30¢ $3,652 $6,940 +$3,288 (+90%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $7,200 $5,850 −$1,350 (-19%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4,498 $4,500 +$2 (+0%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1,891 $1,344 −$548 (-29%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $146 $136 −$10 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17,323 −$17,141 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $87 +$156 +180%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Mitch Marner win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 14 $28,644 −$28,191 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $54,745 −$54,000 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50,289 +$56,709 +113%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20,778 −$20,778 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30,694 −$30,080 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $43,178 +$64,767 +150%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $7,873 +$532 +7%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 03 $3,102 +$3,229 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $80,959 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $13 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $38 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $13 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $22 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $19 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $125 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $236 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $34 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $38 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $636 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2,545 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $9 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $127 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $64 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $56 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $8 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $13 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $13 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $45 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $255 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $12 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $127 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296,192.60 · official $296,212.96 (match) · 3491 history records