Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C4 0xc42e…edbd sports 171 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,675 (+17%) realized +$17,374 · open +$1,301
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%62W / 57L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$1,212est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$19,639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$2,335
other 6% +$661
politics 4% −$185
crypto 2% +$2,954
finance 1% −$661
tech 0% −$96
culture 0% −$130
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -12.5% -20.8% 29% 29% -55.5%
≤30d 22 +122.0% +100.8% 41% 41% -48.4%
≤90d 108 +25.2% +13.3% 54% 33% -11.9%
all 119 +21.2% +9.6% 52% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.6% 34% -10.8%
10% -0.8% 33% -19.4%
15% ← realistic here -10.4% 33% -27.2%
20% -19.2% 29% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,063) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$671 vs −$749 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$19,639
Realized+$17,374
Unrealized+$1,301
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses62 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,212
Open positions60
Markets (closed)119 / 171
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$659
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,660 $1,739 +$78 (+5%)
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $1,020 $1,627 +$607 (+60%)
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,673 $1,571 −$102 (-6%)
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $813 $1,353 +$540 (+66%)
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,291 $1,153 −$139 (-11%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,138 $1,121 −$17 (-2%)
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $801 $939 +$138 (+17%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $878 $917 +$39 (+4%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $366 $906 +$540 (+148%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $591 $905 +$314 (+53%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $744 $663 −$81 (-11%)
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $468 $595 +$127 (+27%)
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $498 $565 +$67 (+14%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $540 $510 −$30 (-6%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $405 $411 +$6 (+1%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $335 $410 +$75 (+22%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $345 $341 −$5 (-1%)
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $295 $330 +$35 (+12%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $306 $315 +$9 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $265 $295 +$30 (+11%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 57¢ $290 $288 −$2 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $340 $266 −$74 (-22%)
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $529 $260 −$269 (-51%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $326 $250 −$75 (-23%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $127 $219 +$93 (+73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Duyen Ha win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $247 −$247 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 19 $859 −$859 -100%
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? Jun 19 $26 +$60 +228%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $286 +$314 +109%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $615 −$154 -25%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $288 +$912 +317%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $22 +$194 +880%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $6,400 −$6,004 -94%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $91 +$2,020 +2231%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $403 −$403 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 01 $1,380 −$1,380 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 01 $930 −$930 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $390 −$390 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $5,676 −$5,580 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $700 +$901 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $2,006 +$1,394 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $520 +$480 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $960 +$2,040 +212%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $1,422 −$1,182 -83%
Immanuel Quickley: Points O/U 2.5 May 19 $173 −$173 -100%
X Money released by April 30, 2026? May 19 $283 −$283 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 19 $607 −$607 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 19 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 19 $360 −$360 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 19 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 19 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 19 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 19 $254 −$254 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 19 $2,340 −$2,340 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,110 +$1,890 +170%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $2,078 +$422 +20%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros May 16 $1,960 +$2,040 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $926 +$3,186 +344%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 13 $1,410 +$1,590 +113%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 07 $1,439 +$1,189 +83%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,714 −$568 -33%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $680 +$320 +47%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $1,100 +$900 +82%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 22 $1,503 +$2,654 +176%
Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $82 +$6 +8%
Dyson Daniels: Points O/U 2.5 Apr 21 $108 +$8 +7%
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 4.5 Apr 21 $215 +$16 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 14m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $290 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $281 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $225 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $130 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 42¢ $210 1h
Will Justin Pearson be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? SELL Yes 89¢ $87 1h
Tush Push banned for 2026 NFL Season? SELL No 98¢ $189 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $189 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $87 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $85 1h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 7h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 9h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,638.94 · official $19,638.94 (match) · 3500 history records