Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc42d…9bbb weather 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$626 (-9%) realized −$622 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$6
14 days−$16
30 days−$657
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$605
other 31% −$66
weather 17% −$8
politics 3% +$4
sports 3% +$14
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -33.2% -39.6% 35% 12% -8.5%
≤30d 44 -20.8% -28.3% 48% 7% -18.5%
≤90d 44 -20.8% -28.3% 48% 7% -18.5%
all 44 -20.8% -28.3% 48% 7% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 7% -18.5%
10% -35.2% 7% -26.3%
15% -41.5% 2% -33.5%
20% -47.2% 2% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$622
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage29d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $45 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 +$7 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 $0 -5%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 +$30 +388%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $84 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $19 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $74 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 10? Jun 11 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $88 −$11 -12%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $82 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $79 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 6? Jun 06 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 06 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $112 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $81 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $146 −$18 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,272 −$354 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,793 −$251 -14%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,983 −$36 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $8 18h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 49¢ $4 22h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 52¢ $4 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $14 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 50¢ $5 29h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 54¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 87¢ $20 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $20 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 80¢ $25 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 2d
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 2d
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 93¢ $19 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $96 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.81 · official $45.36 (match) · 101 history records