Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C4 0xc42c…42a1 sports 1203 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,406 (+10%) realized +$12,410 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%617W / 580L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Fees−$1,033est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 106d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,255
other 2% +$152
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 +18.0% +6.8% 76% 53% -17.9%
≤30d 363 +1.7% -8.0% 56% 51% -8.9%
≤90d 910 -1.8% -11.1% 51% 46% -12.5%
all 1197 -0.7% -10.2% 52% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 47% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 46% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 43% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 41% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$94 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$12,410
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses617 / 580
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,033
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1197 / 1203
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Over 51¢ 49¢ $174 $167 −$7 (-4%)
James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target No 94¢ 90¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Atlanta Dream 49¢ 50¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 50¢ 62¢ $10 $13 +$2 (+23%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 51¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 40¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jhon Arias: 4+ shots on target Jun 18 $24 +$1 +6%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 18 $261 +$41 +16%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $11 +$9 +90%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $21 +$13 +60%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $135 −$135 -100%
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ shots Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots on target Jun 17 $21 +$2 +8%
Ali Olwan: 3+ shots on target Jun 17 $36 +$2 +6%
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $23 +$26 +109%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$2 +24%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 17 $22 −$21 -99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $36 +$34 +93%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $253 +$97 +39%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Saeid Ezatolahi: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $81 +$82 +101%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $1 +$2 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $242 +$29 +12%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $99 +$32 +32%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$48 +510%
Aleksandar Pavlovic: 1+ shots Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,361 −$1,361 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 +$6 +158%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $13 +$21 +165%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $107 +$70 +65%
Ritsu Dōan: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $126 +$72 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde: 2+ shots Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Lewis Ferguson: 2+ assists Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Aaron Hickey: 2+ assists Jun 14 $8 $0 +6%
Lawrence Shankland: 2+ assists Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Ben Gannon-Doak: 2+ assists Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Martin Expérience: 2+ assists Jun 14 $23 +$1 +6%
Merih Demiral: 1+ assists Jun 14 $43 +$3 +6%
Carlens Arcus: 2+ assists Jun 14 $47 +$3 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$19 +36%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $49 +$51 +106%
Lewis Ferguson: 1+ shots on target Jun 14 $127 +$70 +55%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $31 +$7 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $137 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $22 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3h
Jhon Arias: 4+ shots on target BUY No 94¢ $24 4h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 4h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 4h
James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target BUY No 94¢ $4 4h
James Rodríguez: 4+ shots on target BUY No 94¢ $15 4h
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 86¢ $261 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 5h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Atlanta Dream 49¢ $16 6h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 40¢ $4 6h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $17 11h
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ shots BUY No 40¢ $9 14h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 62¢ $21 20h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 172.5 BUY Over 48¢ $3 25h
Ali Olwan: 3+ shots on target BUY No 94¢ $31 27h
Carney Chukwuemeka: 3+ shots on target BUY No 92¢ $21 27h
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots on target BUY No 47¢ $23 27h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 BUY Under 52¢ $22 28h
Ali Olwan: 3+ shots on target BUY No 92¢ $5 28h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 28h
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $6 30h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 46¢ $6 33h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 43¢ $8 33h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY No 70¢ $135 37h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $18 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.33 · official $227.33 (match) · 3500 history records