trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 54¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 12 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5) | Jun 10 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $9 | −$1 | -14% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 26 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | -28.8% | -35.6% | 0% | 0% | -32.9% |
| ≤30d | 6 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 0% | 0% | -25.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 0% | 0% | -25.7% |
| all | 6 | -22.9% | -30.3% | 0% | 0% | -25.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.3% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 10% | -36.9% | 0% | -32.8% |
| 15% | -43.0% | 0% | -39.3% |
| 20% | -48.6% | 0% | -45.2% |