Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc429…1c89 sports 177 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$268 (+5%) realized +$272 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%69W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$314now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$378
14 days+$297
30 days+$530
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$524
other 17% −$428
culture 5% +$52
weather 3% +$149
tech 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +18.4% +7.2% 44% 44% +18.6%
≤30d 88 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 43% +11.1%
≤90d 154 -6.2% -15.1% 43% 43% -7.6%
all 157 -3.2% -12.5% 44% 44% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 44% -4.5%
10% -20.8% 44% -13.6%
15% -28.5% 43% -22.0%
20% -35.5% 41% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$314
Realized+$272
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses69 / 88
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions18
Markets (closed)157 / 177
History coverage114d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 49¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 44¢ 44¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 48¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+52%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Jordan Pickford win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Pedri win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-66%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 Jun 20 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$51 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 AND Will United States Jun 19 $10 +$13 +132%
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +101%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$18 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$12 +226%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$10 -33%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$12 -61%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$12 +226%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +111%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$43 +78%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $10 +$57 +560%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 +$168 +165%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 44¢ $25 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 16h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 22h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 33¢ $10 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 22h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 AND Will United States BUY 42¢ $10 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $10 23h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06 BUY 46¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 23h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals AND Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY 12¢ $2 40h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 40h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $25 45h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $5 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $25 45h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $26 2d
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World BUY Yes 49¢ $49 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $20 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 58¢ $19 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.54 · official $315.46 (match) · 294 history records