Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C4 0xc428…bed2 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate76%51W / 16L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$54
14 days+$38
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$123
sports 12% −$16
crypto 4% −$17
world 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +29.6% +17.2% 88% 78% +5.1%
≤30d 67 +20.6% +9.1% 76% 69% +2.1%
≤90d 67 +20.6% +9.1% 76% 69% +2.1%
all 67 +20.6% +9.1% 76% 69% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.1% 69% +2.1%
10% -1.3% 39% -7.7%
15% -10.9% 22% -16.6%
20% -19.6% 12% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses51 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 73
History coverage124d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $50 +$18 +36%
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $40 +$14 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 Jun 27 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 +$3 +62%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$9 -86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $12 +$1 +11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $20 +$8 +40%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +17%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 +$7 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-2 Jun 22 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06- Jun 21 $32 +$9 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $32 +$16 +48%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will South Africa w Jun 18 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN Jun 17 $27 +$10 +36%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 2h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 11h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 24h
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 35h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY 76¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 76¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 90¢ $12 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 12¢ $1 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 59¢ $15 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 75¢ $10 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 20¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $12 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $12 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 90¢ $12 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? A BUY 56¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.38 · official $51.38 (match) · 143 history records