Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc427…6f4d sports 329 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,535 (+12%) realized +$5,432 · open +$4,103
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%115W / 202L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9,245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,592
7 days+$1,372
14 days+$266
30 days+$3,981
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% +$2,453
world 29% +$6,271
finance 14% +$2,234
sports 13% −$686
crypto 7% −$2,040
tech 3% −$23
politics 1% +$24
economics 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.6% +15.4% 64% 45% +30.8%
≤30d 119 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 35% +5.6%
≤90d 212 -6.0% -15.0% 36% 30% -0.5%
all 317 -7.3% -16.1% 36% 29% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 29% -4.2%
10% -24.2% 25% -13.3%
15% -31.5% 21% -21.7%
20% -38.2% 16% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$80 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$9,245
Realized+$5,432
Unrealized+$4,103
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses115 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions12
Markets (closed)317 / 329
History coverage148d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 52¢ 58¢ $1,977 $2,229 +$253 (+13%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? No 29¢ 90¢ $652 $2,000 +$1,348 (+207%)
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? No 57¢ 94¢ $1,161 $1,909 +$749 (+64%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 11¢ 42¢ $492 $1,857 +$1,365 (+277%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 14¢ 33¢ $197 $469 +$273 (+139%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 56¢ $171 $246 +$75 (+44%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 48¢ 45¢ $192 $180 −$12 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 36¢ $85 $177 +$92 (+109%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 53¢ 44¢ $212 $174 −$38 (-18%)
Will ground beef hit $8 per pound in 2026? No 58¢ 46¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? Yes 15¢ 6¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $272 +$4 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 16 $144 +$424 +294%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $490 +$372 +76%
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $263 +$641 +243%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $1,401 +$248 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 15 $12 +$7 +58%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $150 −$143 -95%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $150 +$12 +8%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $96 −$96 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 09 $1,409 −$85 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 09 $319 +$175 +55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 08 $663 +$282 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 07 $114 −$40 -35%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 07 $1,264 −$745 -59%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $99 −$72 -73%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1,050 −$547 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $900 −$42 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$3 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $197 −$26 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 05 $399 +$256 +64%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 05 $560 +$160 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $73 +$34 +46%
Will Jurgen Klopp be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $163 −$104 -64%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 04 $321 −$91 -28%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 04 $437 −$42 -10%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $56 −$25 -44%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $45 −$44 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $893 +$307 +34%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $172 −$154 -89%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $52 −$51 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $296 +$104 +35%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $315 −$308 -98%
Will Niclas Füllkrug be included in Germany's official 2026 World Cup Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $86 −$36 -42%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $39 −$39 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $20 −$12 -63%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $38 −$38 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,155 +$88 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $150 +$9 +6%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $35 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $55 +$22 +40%
Will gas hit (High) $4.60 by May 31? Jun 01 $1,906 +$2,866 +150%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $64 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $13 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $16 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $18 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $22 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $25 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $30 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $1,271 1h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $141 1h
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $1 2h
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $5 3h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 42¢ $621 4h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $315 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 14h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 16h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 20h
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $251 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $22 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $50 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $15 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $9 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $113 28h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $3 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 91¢ $568 29h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $576 39h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $481 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,245.10 · official $9,245.10 (match) · 2695 history records