Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc423…26b5 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+4%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$3
other 18% +$45
sports 14% $0
crypto 6% +$1
politics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 0% -9.9%
all 35 +19.9% +8.5% 49% 3% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 3% -6.0%
10% -1.9% 3% -15.0%
15% -11.4% 3% -23.2%
20% -20.1% 3% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.69 per $1 lost it wins $7.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage470d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $12 $0 -1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $69 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $77 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $31 −$5 -14%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $106 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $40 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $36 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $39 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 09 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $76 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88000 and $86000 on April 4? Apr 07 $60 +$1 +1%
Will Trump 10% blanket tariff go into effect by Saturday? Apr 03 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $6 +$45 +701%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $33 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 21h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $33 28h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $32 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $26 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $18 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $4 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records