Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc422…ae44 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$195 (-8%) realized −$189 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$710now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$45
14 days−$67
30 days−$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$147
economics 18% −$21
other 15% −$140
crypto 9% −$56
finance 8% −$85
sports 6% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +12.9% +2.1% 44% 44% -18.5%
≤30d 30 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 40% -22.4%
≤90d 30 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 40% -22.4%
all 30 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 40% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 40% -22.4%
10% -19.8% 23% -29.8%
15% -27.5% 20% -36.6%
20% -34.6% 17% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$24 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$710
Realized−$189
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)30 / 45
History coverage30d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 38¢ 100¢ $50 $131 +$81 (+163%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 88¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 72¢ 72¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 10¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 54¢ 64¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 56¢ 37¢ $68 $45 −$24 (-35%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 40¢ 12¢ $126 $39 −$87 (-69%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 60¢ 30¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-49%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +292%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$16 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +309%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$4 +20%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $105 −$5 -4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 15 $53 −$5 -9%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +214%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $52 −$23 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$4 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$9 +18%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Jun 09 $108 −$34 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 +$4 +42%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 04 $53 +$8 +15%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 01 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate a Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? Jun 01 $53 −$53 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $105 on May 18? Jun 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $52 +$30 +58%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $52 +$8 +15%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $208 +$7 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $312 +$17 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 74¢ $70 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $54 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 37h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $100 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 43h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 SELL Yes 73¢ $48 44h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 47h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 47h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 47h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $29 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL Yes 40¢ $26 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $52 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $188 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $61 5d
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? SELL Yes 20¢ $74 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.95 · official $709.95 (match) · 114 history records