Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:26:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C4 0xc421…6118 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-2%) realized −$34 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 71% 57% +15.2%
≤30d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 71% 57% +15.2%
≤90d 7 +17.3% +6.1% 71% 57% +15.2%
all 7 +17.3% +6.1% 71% 57% +15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 57% +15.2%
10% ← realistic here -4.0% 57% +4.2%
15% -13.3% 29% -5.9%
20% -21.8% 29% -15.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$129 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $164 $162 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $171 −$168 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $190 +$210 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $411 +$333 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $154 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $291 −$91 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $153 +$47 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $50 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $121 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $105 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $35 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $131 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $102 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.00 · official $162.00 (match) · 64 history records