Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc416…38d9 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$119 (-13%) realized −$113 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$35
7 days−$104
14 days−$104
30 days−$104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$34
sports 41% −$76
crypto 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -34.9% -41.1% 45% 34% -25.8%
≤30d 29 -34.9% -41.1% 45% 34% -25.8%
≤90d 29 -34.9% -41.1% 45% 34% -25.8%
all 34 -38.4% -44.3% 41% 32% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 32% -26.9%
10% -49.6% 29% -33.9%
15% -54.5% 21% -40.3%
20% -58.9% 6% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$10 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)34 / 48
History coverage153d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $11 −$2 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 +$10 +7%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $30 +$14 +46%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 09 $20 −$18 -90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $15 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 27 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 13 $6 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $20 24h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 24h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $100 25h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 25h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 28¢ $5 25h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 25h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 43h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 77¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 97¢ $5 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 28¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.36 · official $275.36 (match) · 82 history records