Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C4 0xc415…9fb6 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$25 (+27%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +306% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +253% what you keep after slip
Net edge+253%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$36
sports 27% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+267.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +306.5% +267.8% 33% 33% -21.2%
≤30d 6 +306.5% +267.8% 33% 33% -21.2%
≤90d 6 +306.5% +267.8% 33% 33% -21.2%
all 6 +306.5% +267.8% 33% 33% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +267.8% 33% -21.2%
10% +232.6% 33% -28.8%
15% +200.5% 33% -35.7%
20% +171.0% 33% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +78% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +307% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$8 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)6 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-41%)
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 +$55 +5245%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +239%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 2¢ $1 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.13 · official $50.13 (match) · 15 history records