Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C4
0xc414…aa7b
other · 134 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$51 -38%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses32 / 99
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage234d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 3 History 131 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1 $0 -20%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -4%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? May 24 $1 +$3 +325%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $1 +$2 +245%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1 $0 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$22
sports 44% −$24
culture 4% −$4
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 19h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 19h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 94¢ $2 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 2d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 2-1 through 3 games? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $1 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $1 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 21d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 21d
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 28d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 33d
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 34d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36d
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 36d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 36d
Will SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 36d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-44.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.0% +5.0% 57% 57% +4.8%
≤30d 17 +10.8% +0.2% 41% 35% +0.2%
≤90d 50 -25.1% -32.3% 26% 24% -32.0%
all 131 -38.2% -44.1% 24% 24% -44.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.1% 24% -44.4%
10% -49.5% 22% -49.7%
15% -54.3% 21% -54.6%
20% -58.8% 18% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 272 history records