Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C4 0xc40a…e989 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+4%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%23W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$9
sports 15% +$7
other 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 56% -4.7%
≤30d 36 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 56% -4.7%
≤90d 45 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 51% -13.9%
all 45 -9.8% -18.4% 51% 51% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 51% -13.9%
10% -26.2% 42% -22.2%
15% -33.3% 40% -29.7%
20% -39.8% 29% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses23 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage56d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -17%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $2 +$6 +297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $1 +$2 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 21 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 21 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$2 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 57m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records