Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc409…9509 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3
politics 15% $0
other 14% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 6% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.9%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage277d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $67 +$2 +3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $17 +$1 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $39 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $1 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $1 $0 -11%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 -1%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $46 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $42 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 28h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $30 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $12 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $2 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $41 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $32 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $13 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $45 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $26 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.36 · official $46.38 (match) · 156 history records