Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:42:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C4 0xc409…4d2a crypto 377 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 5d only
✗ bot/MM pace (670 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$90 (+1%) realized +$77 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%105W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day669.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (670 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 258 +23.4% +11.7% 41% 33% -9.8%
≤30d 258 +23.4% +11.7% 41% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 258 +23.4% +11.7% 41% 33% -9.8%
all 258 +23.4% +11.7% 41% 33% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover669.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 33% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here +1.0% 27% -18.5%
15% -8.8% 22% -26.3%
20% -17.7% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$600
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses105 / 153
Open positions121
Markets (closed)258 / 377
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day669.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 121 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 27? No 2¢ 30¢ $5 $89 +$84 (+1641%)
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $41 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-14%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $21 $23 +$2 (+7%)
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $27 $22 −$4 (-17%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on July 1? No 6¢ 8¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+26%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 6¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Solana dip to $60 June 22-28? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 26? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $11 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $9 +$6 (+147%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+83%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 26? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $19 $8 −$12 (-61%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 29? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $12 $6 −$7 (-53%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $174 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $17 −$1 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 26 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 26 $0 $0 +94%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Jun 26 $1 +$2 +175%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $17 +$8 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $86 +$17 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 26 $214 −$13 -6%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Jun 26 $3 +$4 +127%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $84 −$20 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $206 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 26? Jun 26 $52 +$59 +114%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $65 +$44 +68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $29 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down on June 26? Jun 26 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 26 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 26 $61 −$6 -10%
Will Solana reach $70 on June 25? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $33 −$18 -54%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 26 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 +10%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? Jun 26 $24 +$15 +61%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $15 −$13 -88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $33 −$26 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 June 22-28? Jun 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $3 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 1? Jun 26 $1 $0 +33%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 28? Jun 26 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 26 $40 −$5 -12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on July 1? Jun 26 $13 +$4 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $0 $0 +31%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 26 $59 −$5 -9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 26? Jun 26 $63 +$34 +54%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28? Jun 26 $25 +$25 +99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 30? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on July 1? Jun 26 $15 +$53 +351%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 28? Jun 26 $2 +$7 +330%
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $38 +$7 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 27? Jun 25 $28 +$57 +204%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $6 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $27 4m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $20 10m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 13m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 13m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? SELL No 0¢ $0 28m
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 26? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 29m
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 31m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 32m
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 32m
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 33m
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 44m
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 44m
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 47m
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 29? SELL No 3¢ $3 56m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL No 3¢ $10 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY No 3¢ $9 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 26? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 22-28? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $600.08 · official $599.74 (match) · 3500 history records