Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc407…8e61 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 26% −$9
politics 14% +$1
crypto 10% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -6.1% -15.0% 55% 0% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -11.4%
10% -23.2% 0% -19.9%
15% -30.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage465d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $2 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab May 05 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 25 $3 $0 -4%
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July? Apr 25 $9 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $10 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $13 $0 +3%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $13 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $13 29h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes $2 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $0 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes $1 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $32 15d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $32 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $32 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 17d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2 357d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 99¢ $2 381d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY No $0 402d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY No $0 402d
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? BUY No $5 402d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 403d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 403d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $9 403d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $9 404d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? SELL No 98¢ $9 404d
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? BUY No 97¢ $9 404d
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? SELL No 97¢ $9 405d
Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? BUY No 97¢ $9 406d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 406d
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 406d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $12 406d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.24 · official $35.24 (match) · 90 history records