Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:34:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C4 0xc407…83d1 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+5%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate98%40W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day53.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +4.3% -5.7% 98% 20% -4.8%
≤30d 41 +4.3% -5.7% 98% 20% -4.8%
≤90d 41 +4.3% -5.7% 98% 20% -4.8%
all 41 +4.3% -5.7% 98% 20% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 20% -4.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 7% -13.9%
15% -22.9% 2% -22.3%
20% -30.5% 2% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×24.52 per $1 lost it wins $24.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses40 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day53.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $37 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$2 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $36 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $19 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $18 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$6 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $12 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $37 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $19 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $11 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $11 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records